India IIP – Manufacturing Contracted In December; Turnaround Likely: Anand Rathi

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At 0.4%, industrial growth in December 2021 slipped below expectation. With the favorable base playing out by August 2021, industrial growth has since come off.

The withdrawal of lockdowns since September 2020 and pent-up demand created an unfavorable base for this year. Consequently, despite most major segments of industry registering a seasonal pick-up in Dec-21, overall industrial growth was close to zero and manufacturing contracted.

Apart from the unfavorable base, lack of traction in domestic demand is the main reason for the sharp slowdown in industrial production.

There are reasons to suggest that rural demand is particularly weak. The contraction in staples production seems to corroborate this.

While growth in primary and intermediate goods and infrastructure seems to suggest a modest revival in investment demand, capital goods continues to do poorly. Global supply-chain problems and high crude-oil prices are also unfavorable influences.

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