We are in a global baby bust of unprecedented proportions. It is far from over and its implications are gravely underestimated.
The worldwide fertility rate has already dropped more than 50 per cent in the past 50 years, from 5.1 births per woman in 1964 to 2.4 in 2018, according to the World Bank. In 2020, the 20 per cent shortfall below replacement rate in US fertility, together with low net immigration, produced the lowest population growth on record of 0.35 per cent, below even the flu pandemic of 1918.
Many countries, including Italy, South Korea and Japan, are predicted to see their populations drop by more than half by the end of this century.
The coronavirus pandemic is also having a profound incremental impact, with provisional fertility declines of 5-15 per cent in most developed countries. South Korea recently reported a 2020 fertility rate of 0.84, the lowest rate ever recorded for a major economy.
Lower population growth directly causes slower…