New Delhi: The third wave of coronavirus could hit the peak between October-November if Covid appropriate behaviour is not followed, but may see half the daily cases recorded during the second surge, according to a scientist of a government panel tasked with modelling of COVID-19 cases.
He, however, said the third wave could spread faster if any new virulent variant emerges.
Manindra Agarwal, involved in the Sutra Model’ or the mathematical projection of trajectory of COVID-19, also said the model has three scenarios–optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic–for the prediction of the third wave.
The Department of Science and Technology had last year formed the panel to forecast the surge of coronavirus cases using mathematical models.
The panel had also received flak for not predicting the exact nature of the second wave of Covid.
Agarwal, who is part of the three-member panel, said loss of immunity, effects of vaccination and possibility of a more virulent…