As Europe braces for a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic that in parts of the continent looks to be more intensive than the first, it is tempting to assume that the developing world has gotten off lightly. In India, which has the world’s second-highest total of Covid-19 cases, the number of new infections has been trending downwards since September. Other large developing nations flattened their curves even earlier: Brazil peaked in August and South Africa in July.
Back in March, we would have gratefully accepted this outcome: There were very real and logical fears that once the virus began to spread in poorer countries in Asia and Africa, their limited healthcare systems would struggle far more than Italy’s and Spain’s. It looks as though the world has dodged a bullet.
Yet, I am not at all sure that we should be confident about the winter and next year. Even…