The Tamil Nadu election did not throw a surprising result, as the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam was largely expected to win against the beleaguered and divided All India Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam . The DMK commanded over a larger alliance of parties, had a comparatively smoother transition of power after the death in 2018 of its historical leader, M Karunanidhi, and led a disciplined campaign that mixed regional and national themes.
After a decade of AIADMK rule and the turmoil that party has been since the death in 2016 of its leader J Jayalalitha, a swing in favour of the DMK and its allies seemed highly likely.
But considering the adverse political context, AIADMK did not do that badly, for a party in disarray. It lost 7% of vote share compared to 2016, which is a small swing in Tamil Nadu Elections. On the other hand, the DMK gained 6% of vote share. There is only 4% of vote share difference between the two parties but that difference produced very different results in…