If one goes by the CVoter survey, the Congress and its allies like the AIUDF, BPF, Left Parties and Anchalik Gana Morcha have done enough to get into the 50-55 seat range, within striking distance of the majority mark of 64.
The Congress would need at least 15-20 more seats to win a comfortable majority, one that would make it less dependent on a unpredictable ally like BPF.
Getting these 15-20 seats is easier said than done.
The Mahajot’s present strength is based on two interrelated calculations:
- Consolidating the bulk of Muslim votes and a major chunk of Tai Ahom and Bodo votes.
- Sweeping lower Assam and Muslim-dominated parts of Barak Valley and winning a major chunk of seats in the Bodoland Territorial Council area.
These two processes are enough to take the Mahajot past 50 but not to form the government. That would involve making further inroads into BJP-leaning communities like tea tribes and caste Hindu Assamese voters.
Though the BJP is being weakened not just by a spirited…