2. Is Tejashwi moving beyond the core RJD base of Yadavs and Muslims?
There are two possibilities here:
- The enthusiasm for Tejashwi is nothing but the core RJD vote of Muslims and Yadavs consolidating behind him. There’s little or no shift from NDA to Mahagathbandhan.
- Tejashwi’s jobs pitch and the larger anti-incumbency has enabled the Mahagathbandhan to win anti-Nitish votes across caste lines.
3. Is there a silent JD(U) vote?
Two possibilities here:
- The people vocally speaking against Nitish are mainly RJD’s Yadav voters and BJP’s Upper Caste voters, Nitish has retained support among Extremely Backward Castes, Mahadalits and women. Being non-dominant sections, this vote is relatively silent.
- Nitish has lost support across caste and gender lines.
4. How is the transfer of votes within the respective alliances?
The question of BJP’s transfer of votes to its allies has already been…