Why it’s impossible to draw firm conclusions from the first national serosurvey

The missing national seroprevalence survey has now been found – or so it seems. On July 9, I had discussed the surprising claims that followed completion of the May-June survey to assess the spread of Covid-19 in India. Led by the Indian Council of Medical Research, the survey generated plenty of headlines and speculation, but no preprint or further detail. Now, three months later, a paper in the Indian Journal of Medical Research is available, with 74 authors no less.

With the second national survey now completed, it is unlikely that results of the first will inform many policy decisions. But do we, at least, have a missing piece in India’s Covid-19 story? Do we finally know what was going on with the disease upto May? The short answer is, unfortunately, no. In fact, if the survey holds clear lessons, these are about the conduct of Covid-related research, and not…

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