Lok Sabha Elections 2019: Second chance? Some clues from 27 state polls since 2014

The BJP witnessed a minor erosion in votes across these states, and the Congress gained more than that slide.

By Ravish Tiwari

SUNDAY’S ANNOUNCEMENT of the general elections — April 11 to May 19 — has officially set the stage for a contest between the chemistry of BJP’s biggest asset, PM Narendra Modi, and the arithmetic of Opposition alliances across the country.

The result will, of course, be known on May 23. But an analyses of the 27 Assembly polls held after the previous Lok Sabha elections in 2014 reveal an interesting pattern when it comes to second-time preference of voters for the ruling BJP and the main Opposition Congress. Although the dynamics of Lok Sabha and Assembly polls differ, the votes polled in the 27 states since 2014 shows that the BJP stayed ahead of the Congress, which gained in numbers but came up behind its key rival.

The BJP witnessed a minor erosion in votes across these states, and the Congress gained more than that slide. But the BJP still polled…

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