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We maintains our forecast that India’s gross domestic product will rise by 7.2% in FY23, aided by a revival in contact-intensive services owing to pent-up demand, and a back-ended pick-up in Government and private capex.
While the YoY growth is expected to slow from Q1 FY23 to Q2 FY23 and further to H2 FY23, this would largely be optical in nature; growth is expected to pick-up compared to pre-Covid levels of FY20.
The record generation of average daily goods and services tax e-way bills in August 2022, owing to pre-festive stocking, indicates a revival in confidence and this coupled with softening commodity prices bodes well for the upcoming festive season.
However, the decline in output of key kharif crops such as rice and flagging external demand pose risks to growth and remain the key monitorables.
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