Russia’s unexplained buildup along Ukraine’s border set alarm bells ringing in the west last month as military analysts noted unusual flourishes – such as new field hospitals, long-distance shipments of armour and artillery and last-minute railcar bookings – that did not feel like a normal exercise.
Whether it is merely an attention-grabbing feint or a prelude to an escalation will depend on the Kremlin’s will. But through the buildup, Russia has already signalled that if a larger war does take place, it is prepared to deliver a hammer blow to its neighbour.
“My take is that all the signalling from Russia’s side is that the next war with Ukraine will be a much larger one … and that it will result in a much larger defeat in terms of Ukrainian force. That’s at least what they’re posturing,” said Michael Kofman, a senior researcher at CNA, referring to the troop buildup and rhetoric from Kremlin officials. At least so far, he said, Russia was making its buildup…